Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry: Monthly Report on Prices of Major Raw Materials

In November, the prices of major vitamin varieties fluctuated weakly, with some varieties experiencing sudden price increases. The average transaction price of VE in November fell to 87.71 yuan/kg, which is at a relatively low level in recent years, and it is unlikely to see a significant decline again. The average transaction price of VA is around 116 yuan/kg, and currently the quoted price of Xinhecheng is 150 yuan/kg. Whether the future price can be executed remains to be observed; Calcium pantothenate has been affected by the fire in the newly developed factory in Shandong. The quotes from DSM and Xinfu Pharmaceutical have increased by 10%, and the latest transaction price is 75 yuan/kg, with a significant short-term price increase. Among the other varieties, VB1 and VK3 prices have slightly decreased. In terms of VC prices, Health Net recently reported that Shiyao Group will increase its VC quotation to 26 yuan/kg. Considering the current supply and demand pattern of VC, the actual transaction situation still needs to be observed.
The overall price of antibiotics remains weak, while the price of 4-AA has rebounded from a low level. Among the 7 major antibiotics and their intermediates we tracked this month, the prices of penicillin industrial salt and erythromycin thiocyanate slightly decreased compared to the previous month, while the prices of 4-AA and 7-ACA increased compared to the previous month. Among them, the price of 4-AA rebounded significantly from a low level, while the prices of other varieties remained stable. We believe that last year, due to the dual factors of drug price reduction and antibiotic grading management measures, the industry had excess production capacity and channel inventory. Although this problem has slightly eased this year, downstream demand has not been effectively amplified due to the long-term nature of antibiotic restrictions. In the long run, production capacity is still surplus. Therefore, we expect that although the overall price of antibiotic raw materials and intermediates will not have much room for a significant decline in the future, the rebound space in the future is also relatively limited.
The high prices of hormone intermediates have decreased. Among the hormone intermediates we tracked this month, the price of saponin in October was 900000 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 2.70%, and the price of diene was 1.35 million yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 10.00%, showing a significant decrease from the previous high. We believe that after experiencing ups and downs, hormone products are maturing in the industry with minimal product fluctuations, and the supply and demand of Huangjiang, the raw material for diene, are becoming more balanced. At present, the price of diene is at a historical high, and it is unlikely to continue to strengthen significantly in the future.
Xingye's viewpoint: We believe that although the prices of some vitamin varieties have fluctuated since the beginning of this year, due to the stable supply and demand in the industry, it is expected that the prices will not have a significant increase in the future and will continue to fluctuate within a certain range; But each variety may present a differentiated market in the future, VE、VA、VB1、 The price of calcium pantothenate may gradually warm up in the future, and there is a certain expectation of price increase; In the medium to long term, antibiotic raw materials and intermediates face difficulties in sustained price increases in the context of weak market demand and limited resistance, and the possibility of continuing to operate at a low level is relatively high; As the supply and demand of Huangjiang tend to stabilize in the future, it is unlikely that hormone intermediates will continue to strengthen significantly. Recently, the high prices of saponin and diene have also significantly decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to the latest price trends in the short term.
Risk Warning: The price of active pharmaceutical ingredients is declining; Increased environmental requirements and rising costs.